Reality in the measles epicenter vs RFK Jr.'s comments

This is not just about religious objections, as RFK Jr wants us to believe.

March 1, 2025

By Alex Morozov

Gaines County, TX is the epicenter of the measles outbreak. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there were 146 confirmed cases of measles as of yesterday. 100 of those are age 5 or older (so should have been fully vaccinated - CDC schedule is 12 months and 4 years). Only 5 are confirmed to be vaccinated. One unvaccinated child died as previously reported. The epicenter is Gaines County, but others as well.

Let’s look at RFK Jr’s comments from yesterday and unpack them.

• Supported Texas Department of Health through technical assistance and vaccines (2K MMR doses through immunization program).

Were these 2K doses administered or just shipped? I assume shipped, as the New York Times reported the following 3 days ago:

Since Lubbock started holding clinics two weeks ago, health workers have vaccinated roughly 100 more people than they normally would, though attendance dwindled in the last two days.

The population of Lubbock alone, where cases were seen (the large city 40 min away from Gaines county) is 270,000 people. MMR vaccination rates (defined conservatively as 1 or more doses) in Texas among kids born in 2019 (who should have received two doses - 12 months and 4 years) are 89% (vs US overall 91.4%). So > 10% of kids in Lubbock are completely unvaccinated for MMR, assuming Texas average. 100 additional doses will not get us to where we need to be, especially if it “dwindles.” Time for the Secretary of Health and Human Services to remind people to get vaccinated! Let’s see if he does that.

• Provided lab support to better track the virus causing the outbreak.
• Communicated with public health officials every day in all affected areas to support their response and ensure they have the resources they need.
• Provided communications materials for the affected populations in Low German.

Why just Low German - the language spoken in the Mennonite community? Yes, the traditionally do not vaccinate their children and certainly the epicenter of the epidemic is located in Gaines county where about 20% of the population are of Mennonite faith. We do not know what % of cases are in the Mennonite community.

However, here are some observation which clearly show that it’s not just the Mennonites that are refusing MMR vaccines.

1. When I visited the Gaines County health clinic, which offers free MMR shots, I met two families, neither one wore Mennonite clothes. One mother brought her two children age 5 and 6 who were previously unvaccinated for MMR. She told me it has nothing to do with religious beliefs, it’s due to her fear of vaccines causing autism - information that she picked up online. The other mother, who brought her teenage daughter, also said her reluctance and that of others she knows is not due to religious beliefs.
2. Lubbock has a long history of anti-vax sentiments. There are organizations like “Lubbock Alliance for Medical Freedom” that has 1900 members on Facebook.
3. I did a quick online survey last night (there are many platforms where anyone can do this - and many people who do online surveys as a source of income). Here are the early results.This particular platform does not allow to focus on specific counties, so I did Texas overall. The survey was limited to people who said they have at least one child age 1-10. These children should have received at least one dose of MMR (if below age 4) and two doses (if older than age 4).

Out of a total N=30, 4 (13%) answered “Yes” to the question “did your child skip any of the MMR doses?” Of the multiple choices provided, here is the breakdown. Note none of the 4 said “religious reasons.” (Note this is all of Texas - could be different in Gaines County, but the two mothers I spoke to confirm this).

Note interestingly, in the survey I also asked whether they have seen RFK Jr’s “Vax-Unvax” bus that was criss-crossing the US last year. One person (second row in the table below) said they saw it.

Taken together, I think it’s clear from this that the lack of MMR vaccination in Texas is not due to religious objections alone, and the anti-vax propaganda played a role.

• Updated the CDC website with guidance on measles management to include physician-administered outpatient vitamin A.

I have not looked to see what changes the CDC made to their website under Kennedy’s leadership (scary thought!). But notice how he is mentioning vitamin A but not vaccination. There is no cure for measles and treatment is supportive. The best strategy is prevention.

We will continue to fund Texas’ immunization program. Ending the measles outbreak is a top priority for me and my extraordinary team at HHS.

That’s all? Continue to fund? No call to get vaccinated? The health center I visited was not full at all.

So here we are - RFK Jr is attempting to present this outbreak as limited to the Mennonite community (by referring to materials in Low German); stressing treatments (vitamin A) instead of vaccines, and providing a number of vaccines (2K) that were likely shipped, not administered.